I strongly believe that the charts often speak themselves, you
just need to look at them from the right angle and at the right moment
- JB90


Market commentary by JB90

JB90 aka JapanBear90 on the BearForum
aka JapanBear90 on the Bear Forum
03/13/2001

S&P 500 : Still far from its normal historical valuations...

Applying technical analysis to S&P500 P/E multiple chart we see a clear up "trend" with the support at around 15. Many analysts consider this figure as a fair one for the current US market environment. Assuming this is right, we come to conclusion that S&P500 is still overvalued some 30 -35% ! This gives us a down target of approximately 900 for S&P 500 index.

NASDAQ bubble is surely burst. Look at the NASDAQ/S&P500 ratio spike during 1999-2000 mania ! It reached an astonish 3.6 mark, the highest level since the beginning of Millennium bull market. Historically it was between 1.2 and 1.8, averaging at about 1.5 If we multiply this figure by a down target for S&P 500, the result will be 1300 - 1400 which is a down target for NASDAQ Composite.


Good luck,
JB90

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